What Mark Carney’s victory means for the trade war with Trump – National

Prime Minister Mark Carney and his projected Liberal government is facing economic challenges not seen for generations.

The Liberals were projected by Global News on Monday night to form government, though it’s not clear as of 8:31 a.m. Eastern on April 29 whether it would be a minority or majority.

Either way, Carney is set to lead Canada as the country faces a trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump with tariffs imposed earlier this year.

Speaking in his victory speech Mark Carney said, “Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never ever happen. But…we also must recognize the reality that our world has fundamentally changed.”

Let’s take a look at exactly what Carney is up against.

Earlier this year, Trump imposed tariffs on imports from almost all countries, with some of the biggest impacts felt by China and the European Union.

Canada was hit with a 25 per cent tariff on all products, with an additional 25 per cent on steel and aluminum, 25 per cent on autos, as well as a 10 per cent duty for Canadian energy imports.

In response, the Canadian government has so far imposed retaliatory  counter-tariffs on $60 billion in goods from the United States among other counter-measures including matching auto counter-tariffs.

Economies across the globe have pivoted as the trade war signals significant impacts to economies and businesses.

With higher tariffs come higher costs, and that means consumers and businesses will be forced to make difficult decisions if they can’t find alternatives. This means sacrificing spending, investing, and in many cases hiring.

In anticipation of the economic impacts, stock markets have been on a roller coaster of volatility not seen in years.

And it is not just investors and businesses that are switching gears, as governments are forced to reconsider their trade relationships – particularly with the United States.

Carney has  vowed to put Canada in the best possible position for negotiations with the U.S. once the election was over.

Among the tariff-related campaign promises, Carney outlined plans including to:

• Create a $2 billion strategic response fund for the auto sector
• Focus on Canadian supply chains for the automotive and critical minerals sectors
• Provide financial relief for affected workers from counter-tariff revenues
• Speed up energy project approvals
• Bolster the agricultural food and business sector with new funding
• Invest $5 billion to boost international trade diversification aimed at securing new partnerships as alternatives to the United States.

This election may have come down to more than what the candidates were promising, and more about which leader invoked a sense of confidence with voters.

“This election (was) in large measure, larger than usual even, about competence,” says political science professor Christopher Cochrane at University of Toronto, adding voters may have asked themselves, “which of the candidates (did) they trust the most to be able to steer the country through very difficult, dangerous, challenging and really threatening circumstances.”

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With the trade war among the top issues for voters, Carney’s experience may have convinced voters he’s the candidate best positioned to lead Canada.

Carney said after winning the election, “There is also for me as I stand before you this evening humility in recognizing that well Well, many have chosen to place your trust in me, trust in the Liberal Party.”

From the private to public sectors, Carney has held multiple leadership positions with both private companies and government bodies.

Among his many past-held titles, Carney spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs before joining the Bank of Canada as a deputy governor and then being recruited to the Department of Finance Canada. From 2007 to 2013, Carney was the Governor of the Bank of Canada, and was tasked with steering the economy and crafting monetary policy for the nation’s lenders during the financial crisis of 2008.

The current trade war, with implications of a recession, certainly harkens back to the infamous financial and economic events of the Covid-19 and 2008 recessions for Carney, who was already several weeks into the trade war as prime minister before the election.

After his run at the Bank of Canada, Carney took a similar position at the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, which included during Britan’s referendum to exit the European Union.

From 2020 to 2024, Mark Carny served in the private sector acting as vice chairman of Brookfield Asset Management. At Brookfield, Carney was tasked with leading the firm’s investment strategy for environmental, social, and governance projects.

Carney’s time with Brookfield, as well as his transitioning from the private sector into politics was heavily scrutinized by the Tories.

Only time will tell how Carney handles the pressure of uncertain economic headwinds, but if metaphors about defending the economy are of any value, Carney was even a backup goalie for his Harvard hockey team.

“What you want is a leader that’s able to respond as effectively as possible to the conditions that they’re confronted with to make the right choice” says Cochrane.

“I think we’re in a very different kind of political environment, not new to Canadian history, but new to any but the oldest Canadians among us. And it’s going to be a very challenging few years.”

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