A prominent polling analyst says Quebec’s governing party could be reduced to fewer than 10 seats in the provincial legislature if an election were held today, based on current poll numbers.
Philippe J. Fournier, creator of poll aggregator 338Canada, says Premier François Legault’s approval rating is now worse than that of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which recent polls have pegged around 30 per cent.
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A poll released today for 338Canada and L’Actualité magazine suggests a majority of Quebecers think Legault should step down before the next provincial election in 2026, and only one in five respondents are satisfied with his performance.
Fournier says he was surprised Legault’s numbers are so low and that it will be very difficult for his Coalition Avenir Québec government to turn things around.
Legault won a second term in 2022, when his party secured 90 of 125 seats — the largest majority Quebec had seen in decades — but the CAQ has been lagging behind the sovereigntist Parti Québécois in opinion polls for more than a year.
The Pallas Data poll surveyed 1,093 adults by phone last week and has a margin of error of three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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