When Albertans cast their ballots in this spring’s federal election, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh wants voters in the traditionally conservative-leaning province to believe his party has the best chance at competing against the Conservative Party of Canada, which at dissolution held 30 of 34 seats in Alberta.
Singh was speaking at a campaign rally at a community centre in the Edmonton Centre riding on Tuesday, where he promised that if the NDP form government, he would protect Canada’s public health-care system by banning American companies from buying Canadian health-care facilities and broadly taking steps to prevent the emergence of for-profit care in the country.
Singh expressed optimism about his party’s prospects in Alberta this election, reminding attendees of how the NDP pulled off an upset in a north Edmonton riding in the 2021 election.
“Here in Edmonton, people thought … ‘No way that Blake (Desjarlais) can win in Edmonton Griesbach.’ (But) Blake Desjarlais beat a Conservative,” Singh told the crowd. “If you’re worried about Conservatives in Edmonton, in Alberta, New Democrats beat Conservatives.”
When it comes to provincial politics, Singh could point to the NDP winning every single seat in Edmonton in the 2023 Alberta election, even though the United Conservative Party won a majority mandate to form government.
At the federal level, the NDP currently has two incumbents running in this election: Desjarlais and Heather McPherson, the party’s candidate in Edmonton Strathcona. However, in the two previous federal elections, the only seats won by the party in Alberta were in Edmonton Strathcona.
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The Liberal Party of Canada went from winning four seats in Alberta (two in Edmonton) in 2015, to being shut out in the province in the 2019 election. In 2021, they rebounded by winning two seats: George Chahal in Calgary Skyview and Randy Boissonnault in Edmonton Centre. Last month, Boissonnault announced he would not seek re-election in 2025.
“I see an incredible chance with Trisha Estabrooks as our candidate,” Singh said when asked about the Edmonton Centre riding. Estabrooks is the former chair of the Edmonton Public School Board.
“She has shown you who she is,” Singh said. “You saw her fighting for students, fighting for families, … fighting for education staff.”
John Brennan, a political analyst based in Edmonton, said he believes Edmonton Centre will be “a legitimate three-way race” because the NDP has a new candidate in Estabrooks, the Liberals have a new candidate in Eleanor Olszewski and the Conservatives have a new candidate in Sayid Ahmed.
“It’s really hard to say what’s going to happen in Edmonton Centre,” he said.
Estabrooks said she has spent the last year-and-a-half knocking on doors in the Edmonton-Centre riding and that the NDP party is “in this to win it” when it comes to the upcoming election, particularly in Edmonton.
“We want to elect better representation here in Edmonton Centre, and No. 2, we want to stop the Conservatives from getting another seat and potentially creating a Pierre Poilievre government,” Estabrooks said. “And so when we see progressives — folks with progressive values — stand behind us and the NDP, and know that we are the ones that can deliver those results, it means a lot.”
McPherson echoed Singh and Estabrooks’ opinion that the NDP are the most effective option for voters who simply “don’t want a Conservative government.”
“Edmonton is a New Democrat city,” she said. “We’ve seen that provincially, and we’re increasingly seeing that federally.”
Brennan said he believes the NDP “have a legitimate shot” in Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton Centre and Edmonton Griesbach.
“Edmonton Strathcona should be a sure-fire win for the NDP,” he said, noting that McPherson was re-elected in 2021 by an 18,000-vote margin. He said like in Edmonton Centre, he believes the Edmonton Griesbach race will be very tight.
“(Desjarlais) defeated Kerry Diotte, who at the time was a Conservative MP, but only by 1,400 votes. Interestingly enough, we have a rematch this time around. … It’s going to be very close.”
McPherson said she believes Conservatives have been taking Alberta votes “for granted,” and that the Liberals do not put in the effort needed to win progressive votes in the province.
The Liberals, however, have been able to recruit a well-known NDP politician to run in Edmonton this election. Rod Loyola, who has served as an Alberta NDP MLA since 2015, is running for the Liberals federally in the newly formed riding of Edmonton Gateway. He will battle for votes against Conservative candidate Tim Uppal, who served as a cabinet minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper.
Brennan said the polls he has been looking at show that the Liberals have had an uptick in support nationally but that in Alberta that support is down compared to the last election, while the NDP’s support appears to be up.
Still, he said he believes the NDP has its work cut out for it this election.
“They’re at the point now where it’s about saving the furniture, … holding the 24 seats they have now,” Brennan said, adding he believes the party will focus its efforts on ridings in Edmonton, B.C.’s Lower Mainland, Winnipeg and southwestern Ontario.
Brennan said he does not believe the NDP are likely to win any seats in Calgary this election but he believes the Liberals could earn wins in that city if voters there who traditionally vote NDP end up voting for the Liberals instead.
“(I think) you’re going to see vote-switching,” he said.
–With files from Global News’ Erik Bay
