Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to have breathed new life into the Liberal party as new Ipsos polling shows the party widening its lead over the Conservatives even further since Carney’s arrival.
The poll, published Tuesday by Ipsos Public Affairs exclusively for Global News, found that if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would secure 42 per cent of decided voter support, compared with 36 per cent for the Conservatives — widening their lead over the Tories by seven points in just three weeks.
Polling from Ipsos last month found the Liberals topping the Conservatives for the first time in years, though the number was within the poll’s margin of error.
Tuesday’s seven-point Liberal lead is beyond the 3.8 per cent margin of error.
Since 2021, Ipsos polling has shown the Conservatives consistently leading in the polls, outpacing the Liberals. But in February, that shifted, with the Liberals finally edging out the Conservatives by a slight lead.
Now, it seems the Liberals’ lead is gaining momentum and they are in “majority government territory,” explained Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.
“Based on the numbers that we’re seeing in our polling at the moment, the Liberals would be knocking on the door for a majority,” he told Global News.
The poll also shows the NDP dropped two points in three weeks to 10 per cent of decided voters, while the Bloc Québécois held steady at six per cent.
The Green Party has fallen by two points to two per cent, the People’s Party remains unchanged at three per cent and support for other parties has inched up by one point to two per cent.
“History is not going to be kind to the behaviour of the New Democrats over the space of this last term of the Trudeau administration,” Bricker said.
“They’ve been incapable of presenting themselves as any alternative to the Liberal party. And as a result, what’s happened as progressive voters have decided that they’re going to consider Mark Carney in the Liberal party as opposed to Jagmeet Singh.”
Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was officially sworn in as prime minister on March 14, following Justin Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation over two months ago amid declining popularity.
The next federal election hasn’t been set yet, but an early call is widely expected in the coming weeks.
Carney’s new role as prime minister comes amid the ongoing trade war started by the U.S.
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The U.S. has already imposed a sweeping 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods that went into effect at the beginning of March, as did Canada’s counter-tariffs on American goods worth $30 billion.
Steel and aluminum tariffs hit Canada and other countries last week, while global “reciprocal” tariffs are set to kick in on April 2 from the U.S.
In response to the tariffs, Carney said Trump is trying to weaken the Canadian economy with “unjustified tariffs” as he warned about “dark days” brought on by the U.S. move.
Who will make the best prime minister?
In the Ipsos poll, respondents were asked which federal party leader would make the best prime minister.
Carney was the top choice for the federal candidate who would make the best prime minister, with 42 per cent, leading Poilievre (32 per cent) by 10 percentage points, according to the poll.
Twelve per cent felt NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh would be the best person for the job, while seven per cent believed Green Party Leader Elizabeth May was the right choice.
Four per cent chose Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, and another four per cent thought People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier would be the best fit.
“The departure of Justin Trudeau is one part of this. The second part of this is what’s been happening south of the border and Donald Trump’s direct attack on Canada,” Bricker said.
“And then the third part is Canadians who were considering voting for the Conservative party, as they represent a change, have had their eyes opened up to another potential possibility being a rejuvenated Liberal party.”
Nearly six in 10 respondents believed it was time for another federal party to take over leadership, though this sentiment has decreased by 19 points since December 2024, before Carney assumed leadership of the Liberal party.
Forty-two per cent of respondents believe the Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election.
Demographically, the poll shows the Liberals performing well among those aged 18 to 34 and 55 and older, while the Conservatives remain strongest among those aged 35 to 54.
“When you look at the demographics of Liberal party support, they’ve changed massively. Young people have come back on for the Liberal party. That’s not something that we were seeing in our previous polling,” Bricker said.
“And a gender gap that has disappeared has reemerged. So women are much more likely to vote for the Liberal party than men are.”
‘The change has been massive’
Given that the Conservatives have been leading in the polls for years, Bricker said he has never seen a shift of this magnitude in Canada’s political landscape.
“These Conservatives were at 45, 46 [per cent]. In some polls they were even pushing close to 50 [per cent]. They’ve now dropped back down to about 35, 36 [per cent], which, by the way, is higher than they were in their last election campaign,” Bricker said.
“But the swing has been enormous…. The change has been massive.”
He added that it’s also very likely that people who voted NDP in the last few federal elections may now be considering supporting the Liberal party.
Regionally, the polls show that the Liberals lead in Ontario and Quebec, along with a strong showing in British Columbia.
In Quebec, Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois trails the surging Liberals by 15 points.
Bricker said the poll shows that the Bloc Québécois is less relevant right now, especially during a trade war with the United States.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 14 and 17, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
— with files from Global News’ Sean Previl and Saba Aziz