The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to last in the long term, according to a former British spy chief.
Sir Richard Dearlove – who ran MI6 between 1999 and 2004 – explained his concerns with the recently announced deal in an interview on the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge.
As well as the situation in the Middle East, Sir Richard told Sophy that Europe is in a “war situation” with Russia, rather than a pre-war one, and that he believes the deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius will collapse.
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The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into force in the early hours of the morning on Wednesday local time.
Since it began, people have been streaming back into the southern regions of Lebanon as Israel begins to withdraw its forces.
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Sir Richard says the deal is a “retreaded agreement from 2006” which was meant to keep Hezbollah separate from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
This was supposed to be moderated by the UN and the Lebanese army, but over time “did absolutely nothing”, he added.
Instead, the former intelligence chief says the ceasefire suits both sides for the time being, as Israel has pushed Hezbollah away from the northern border – at least “in the short to medium term”.
He added: “The Israelis must know how much of the infrastructure of Hezbollah they’ve taken down.
“I mean, they haven’t taken it down completely, but maybe the Lebanese state can reassert some of its authority as the government of Lebanon and keep Hezbollah to an extent under control.
“We just have to wait and see what happens.”
Sir Richard went on to tell Sophy that the conflict has left Iran – which backs Hezbollah – “more exposed” as layers of its anti-Israel proxies have been removed.
This could lead to a more “direct confrontational situation” if Iran were to launch another attack on Israel.
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‘I think it’s an actual war’
On the Ukraine war, Sir Richard said the UK government needs to “face up to the fact that the Russians think they’re in a state of war with us”.
The former top spook said the situation is an “actual war”.
He said: “We have to face up to the fact that the Russians think they’re in a state of war with us.
“Donald Tusk [the Polish prime minister] has referred to it as a pre-war situation. I think he’s wrong. I think it’s an actual war.”
“Now, that doesn’t mean in the Russian mind, the military conflict, but it means hybrid conflict or different types of conflict in different arenas of interest.”
Sir Richard says he’s always believed it’s important to have a dialogue with “one’s opponents or enemies” – saying this is especially key during a “contained conflict” in Europe which has the potential to spill over.
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On the Chagos Islands – which the UK has agreed to hand over to Mauritius – the ex-MI6 chief said he believes “it won’t go through”.
Sir Richard says Marco Rubio – Donald Trump’s nomination for secretary of state, the US’s top foreign minister – believes Mauritius is too close diplomatically to China.
“I mean, I very much hope that Rubio and Trump shoot this agreement down. I mean, the Chagos Islands are strategically, really important,” he said.