The election in Ireland offers a great opportunity for observers of elections, parties and public opinion.
Members of the Irish Dail are selected using the Single Transferable Vote (STV).
Invented in the mid-19th century it requires voters to make an ordered choice across candidates, marking 1 against the most preferred, 2 against the next, and so on.
It is a voting system that actively avoids wasting votes and in the process offers amazing insight into voting choices and competition both within and between parties.
Counting votes won’t be quick but watching that process unfold might bring its own rewards.
Ballot papers in Cork in the 2020 election. Pic: Yui Mok/PA Wire
Ireland, which votes on Friday to elect a new parliament, employs the Single Transferable Vote (STV) – a method used also to select members of the Northern Ireland Assembly and local councils in Scotland.
The merits of STV have divided opinion since the system was invented in the mid-19th century.
Supporters maintain that transferring votes where possible avoids the pitfall of our own “first past the post” system where many votes cast in single-member constituencies are wasted.
The outcome under STV rules is an elected legislature that far better reflects the overall distribution of support than our own where Labour’s landslide Commons majority is based on the choices of just over a third of voters.
Critics argue that far simpler methods of securing proportional representation are available, providing easier choices for voters and a more transparent method for translating votes into seats.
What is not in dispute is that STV offers wonderful opportunities for those wishing to see how this complex system plays out during often prolonged counting stages.
STV was independently invented in the mid-1850s by a British lawyer, Thomas Hare, and a Danish mathematician, Carl Andrae. It is favoured by our own Electoral Reform Society.
The 2020 Irish General Election count in Dublin. Pic: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Voting preferences
At its heart is a method of preferential voting, where electors rank candidates in order, 1, 2, 3, and so on, rather than a simple ‘X’. Voters are free to vote only for a single candidate for their choice to count towards the result.
Ireland uses constituencies that select between three and five members to ensure the outcome is broadly proportional. There are consequences that flow from this.
Parties anticipating winning more than one seat will field multiple candidates. In effect, these are in competition with one another, each vying to finish ahead of their party rival. This leads to candidates carving out their own constituency territory and being hostile to any infringements.
For the voter, an STV ballot paper can be somewhat daunting. Five parties have candidates in all 43 of the newly-drawn Irish constituencies. Another 15 registered parties will fight in selected areas. Additionally, there are 171 independents.
‘Watching paint dry’ waiting for the result
This may mean long ballot papers to navigate. In the five-seat Louth constituency, for example, there are 25 candidates listed. A diligent voter wishing to rank-order this lot will be spending some time in the polling station.
When it comes to counting votes and distributing seats, STV is in a league of its own.
Votes for then-Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in 2020. File pic: PA
There is a world of difference between an election count for a UK general election and one in Ireland. In the UK, votes are counted and seats awarded to the candidate topping the poll, while STV requires multiple counts that can and do take days to complete.
Some say this is like watching paint dry but for others, it is what makes STV the most nuanced of all voting systems. But patience brings its own rewards.
Candidates must reach the quota to stay in the race
The first step is to establish the “quota”, the bar in each constituency which a candidate should reach before being elected.
Ireland uses the Droop quota, named after its inventor in the 1880s, Henry Droop, an English barrister. This is not to be confused with the Hare quota, a mistake easily made but totally unforgivable among election cognoscenti.
Once the total of valid first preference votes is known, this number is divided by the number of available constituency seats plus one. In the case of Louth, that means six seats.
Any fraction that appears is ignored and instead, a further one is added to the number.
Between one count and the next, there will either be a transfer of “surplus” votes from a candidate reaching the quota or votes transferred from candidates being eliminated from the race.
If the quota is 10,000 votes and one candidate receives 11,000 votes at the first count then that releases 1,000 surplus votes that are re-distributed to the other candidates according to second preferences marked on the ballot papers.
The second count records the result of this procedure and tells us whether or not another candidate has been elected. If not, then candidates sitting at the foot of the pile will be eliminated and their second preferences will be re-distributed. If the second preference choice is for someone already elected then the third preference is used instead.
And so it goes through successive counts – transferring surpluses from winners or votes from losers as they exit the contest.
The process reveals much about voters and parties alike.
Are voters who choose one particular party with a first preference loyal to that party with a second preference or are they shopping around?
By the time we reach the later counting stages, it may be that when a candidate is eliminated their ballots show preferences for people that have already left the race.
It is not even second or third choices being transferred but those much lower down the order.
For that voter in Louth, it is important to factor this into their thinking process.
And for attentive readers, what happens finally if there are no more votes to re-distribute but a seat still to allocate?
Then, the candidate with the largest total at that point will be elected despite finishing short of the quota.