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Photo: RNZ The official cash rate (OCR) has been cut and banks have trimmed many of their home loan rates. But, with the OCR forecast to fall through the next couple of years, how far are mortgage interest rates really likely to drop? And how long is it worth hanging out for a better deal? As part of its updated forecasts, the Reserve Bank said in the latest monetary policy statement that it expects the OCR to drop to less than 4 percent by the end of next year, and to 3 percent by mid-2027. Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said he expected a 25 basis point cut at each meeting between now and the middle of next year, and a couple of cuts in the second half of 2025. He said, plugging the bank's OCR track into Infometrics' interest rate model showed that by early 2025, a on...

Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon Contact Energy has reported a strong full year profit with revenue growth of 35 percent. New Zealand's second largest energy company has reported a net profit of $235 million in the year ended June, which was 85 percent up on the year earlier. Key numbers for the 12 months ended June compared with a year ago: Net profit $235m vs $127m Revenue $2.86b vs $2.12b Underlying profit $675m vs $573m Full year dividend 37 cents per share vs 35cps "The result has been a demonstration of strength in our underlying performance as we managed through market volatility, while keeping the momentum to deliver existing and new renewable developments," chief executive Mike Fuge said. He said the next 12 months will see Contact operating an additional 200 megawatts of newly cons...

Freightways chief executive Mark Troughear. Photo: Supplied / Freightways Courier and information management company Freightways reported a slight drop in profit as it faced higher costs, although revenue increased despite the tough economic environment. Key numbers for the 12 months ended June compared with a year ago: Net profit $70.9m vs $75.3m Revenue $1.21b vs $1.12b Operating profit $136.4m vs $134m Interest expense $1m vs $0.14m Final dividend unchanged 37 cents per share The company, which owned brands including New Zealand Couriers, Post Haste and Big Chill Distribution, said tough economic conditions meant domestic customer volumes were lower, although it was mitigated to some extent by new business gains. New Zealand courier volumes fell about 5 percent in a sign of the slo...

Photo: RNZ The Commerce Commission is set to reveal its eagerly awaited final report into competition in the retail banking sector on Tuesday. Its draft report found the sector lacks competition, with a two-tier market dominated by the big four Australian-owned banks, ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac. The report suggested that the sector lacked disruptive forces to drive change and deliver benefits. It stopped short of calling for a break-up of the big banks, and there was little indication a drastic measure might emerge in the final report. The draft report also recommended the government look at ways to beef up [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/524216/how-a-kiwibank-sale-might-work Kiwibank] by increasing its capital. When it came to competition for home loans (retail banks' biggest busine...

Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King There is light at the end of the tunnel for the economy, as inflation and interest rates continue to ease. ASB's latest quarterly forecast indicates economic growth will be flat or down for the rest of this year, while global growth also remained below average. GDP, which had contracted in two of the past six quarters through to March 2024, was also down 0.5 percent from its 2022 peak, and more than 4 percent down on a per-capita basis. ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the economy had been showing "increasing signs of brittleness under the continued pressure from high interest rates", but there were brighter days ahead. "Painful as it is, inflation is getting under control," he said. "Recent encouraging signs suggest the Reserve Bank can be confiden...

The NZX in Auckland. Photo: RNZ / Kymberlee Gomes Retailers and construction companies are expected to suffer this earnings season, reflecting the domestic economic slowdown. Companies listed on the stock exchange will release their latest financial results over the next two weeks. Forsyth Barr is picking it will be the sixth-straight season of decline for the NZX. It would be an unprecedented backwards run worse than during the global financial crisis. Senior analyst Aaron Ibbotson said soft market conditions will have battered earnings and confidence, and expectations for companies such as Fletcher Building and the Warehouse were already very low because they have communicated demand is poor. "We've called out Vulcan, Warehouse, Sky TV, Air New Zealand that we think potentially will p...